The week delivered on expectations for job numbers and inflation, except on the producer side, where inflation fell short of projections. This led to a rise in mortgage rates.

Looking ahead, there's a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement another 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%. This comes amid a booming stock market, steady GDP growth, and a slightly elevated unemployment rate of 4.2%. An additional inflation report is also due at the end of the week.

Since President-elect Trump’s initial weeks, the economy has seen a ~10% surge in consumer confidence alongside significant stock market gains. But how long will this market exuberance last? That remains uncertain. What’s clear is that cryptocurrencies continue to gain traction among younger investors, while the thriving stock market has pulled attention away from bonds. This shift has driven mortgage rates higher, now hovering between the high 6% range and nearly 7%.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has moved to a cash position not seen since 2005, signaling caution. His famous mantra, “Be fearful when others are greedy,” suggests he views current stock valuations as overpriced. If this outlook gains traction, we could see a pivot to safer investments like bonds, potentially lowering mortgage rates in Q1 2025. Time will tell.

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